The IEA Oil Market Report for May raised its global demand growth forecast for 2014 marginally from the April edition, to 1.32 million barrels/day (mb/d), on higher first-quarter data. The increase also reflected an upward adjustment to baseline 2012 non‐OECD demand, particularly in India, China and Saudi Arabia, which added 0.1 mb/d to the historical average as well as to 2014 total demand, now pegged at 92.8 mb/d.
After hitting five‐month lows in March, OPEC crude oil production rebounded by 405 kb/d in April, to 29.90 mb/d, contributing to the 700 000 barrels per day (700 kb/d) month-on-month increase in global supplies, to 92.1 mb/d. Global supplies were 820 kb/d higher than in April 2013, with non‐OPEC year-on-year output growth of 1.8 mb/d more than offsetting an OPEC crude oil decline of 960 kb/d. The “call on OPEC crude and stock change” for the second half of this year was raised by 140 kb/d to 30.7 mb/d.
Global refinery crude throughputs hit a seasonal low in April, estimated at 75.4 mb/d, on plant maintenance and seasonally weak demand. Runs are set to rebound steeply until August as turnarounds unwind and demand increases. Global throughputs are projected to average 76.2 mb/d in the current quarter, 0.4 mb/d lower than in the first quarter of this year.
OECD industry inventories slipped by 2.5 mb in March to 2 570 mb, as a steep drawdown of product stocks partly offset rising crude and feedstock holdings. Preliminary data indicate that OECD commercial stocks surged by 52.1 mb in April, reducing the deficit against the five-year average to 79 mb from 110 mb at the end of March.
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Source: IEA, 2014