The IEA Oil Market Report for June forecast a 1.3 million barrel-per-year (mb/d) rise in global oil demand for this year, to 92.8 mb/d, a modest acceleration on 2013 as the macroeconomic backdrop improves. Global oil demand is set to increase sharply from a low of 91.4 mb/d in the first quarter to a high of 94 mb/d in the fourth.
Global supplies rose 530 000 barrels a day (530 kb/d) in May, to 92.6 mb/d, mostly on an increase in non‐OPEC production of 440 kb/d, the monthly report informed subscribers. On a yearly basis, world output was up 1.0 mb/d for the month, as non‐OPEC growth of 2.1 mb/d compensated for OPEC declines.
OPEC supplies inched up by 85 kb/d to 29.99 mb/d in May, with increased Saudi output offsetting declines in Libya. The “call” on OPEC crude and stock changes was raised by 150 kb/d for 2H14 to an average of 30.9 mb/d.
OECD industry stocks built by 39.8 mb, twice the seasonal average, to stand at 2 624 mb by end‐April. As a result, the deficit to average levels fell to 77 mb, its narrowest since October 2013. Preliminary data indicate a further strong 37.4 mb build in May.
Global refinery crude demand fell to a seasonal low of 75.9 mb/d in April on maintenance and weak margins. OECD runs were stronger than expected, rising by 470 kb/d year‐on‐year, their first annual gain since June 2013. Global runs are set to increase seasonally through August, averaging 76.5 mb/d in the second and 77.8 mb/d in the third.
The Oil Market Report (OMR) is a monthly International Energy Agency publication which provides a view of the state of the international oil market and projections for oil supply and demand 12-18 months ahead. To subscribe, click here.
Source: IEA, 2014